Despite occupying two thirds of the market, volume sales of bread are in decline, down by almost 4% between 2006-08 to 1,709 million tones across all sectors. Consumers are cutting back as general trends towards healthy eating, premium lines and more variety in breakfast foods take hold. There is a chance however that in 2009 the recession will benefit cheaper varieties, such as white bread, at the expense of more premium types of breads.
Dominated by own-label, new product development in the bread market has gathered momentum, meeting consumer demand for more variety, more premium and health-oriented breads. Both French bread and speciality breads are more popular than they were in 2007 but organic bread is losing ground, due to cost implications.
Meanwhile morning goods have enjoyed an 8% increase in value sales between 2003 and 2008, as consumers seek out alternatives to their morning toast. The market is worth £1,360 billion.
This year, Mintel predicts the bread and morning goods market will break the £4 billion mark reaching the estimated value of £4.183 billion. Against the backdrop of economic downturn and an impending recession, bread and bakery goods have an advantage over the other competing categories. As well as being a store cupboard staple, many see bread and morning goods as comfort foods, much needed in these gloomy economic times.
Over the next five years, the bread and morning goods market will continue to increase in value, albeit at a slower rate. Growth of 23% at current prices is predicted from 2008-13, compared to 30% for the previous five years, resulting in an estimated worth of £4.8 billion by 2013.