Cautious optimism

David Lunt, Group Managing Director for NBC & NDN, says consumer confidence will determine the health of the wholesale sector.

What do you think will be the biggest emerging trends in wholesaling in 2026?

The trends will be driven by the outcomes of big decisions made in the Budget and the corresponding actions made by consumers. The wholesale sector already faces a landscape defined by consolidation, cautious optimism, and rapid technology transformation. Consumer confidence, or lack of it, will define the trends very quickly as we face an uncertain festive trading period. Across the UK, economic uncertainty continues to impact upon business confidence, with sales growth remaining slow or non-existent. This situation is driving further consolidation amongst wholesalers, as the larger businesses look to strengthen their position, and smaller businesses seek stability in their existing operations, or perhaps look at mergers and acquisitions to gain secured scale.

What will be the key categories to watch out for?

There will be two types; firstly, ensuring that the everyday categories are always well served. Secondly, replacement categories for high cash value sales such as disposable vaping products. With costs on the rise, the ability to deliver sales growth through higher cash value will be an imperative for local businesses.

How can wholesalers best prepare for 2026?

Work closer with our suppliers. Manufacturers are streamlining their own businesses, consolidating supply and routes to market, increasing minimum order quantities, and seeking cost efficiencies, especially within the supply chain. This puts added pressure on wholesalers to meet those demands and have strong supplier relationships. For independent businesses, that means finding the right partner to help them.

Do you think online shopping will increase over the next year?

Yes – with consumers more cautious about spending, they will be more aware of the net benefits that can be delivered through specific shopping channels, supplying goods and services in what is becoming an increasingly competitive route to market.

Do consumers still love local shopping?

Absolutely – the majority of the consumers we serve are extremely budget conscious and will always be wary of price, availability, location and immediately available funds to spend. Many local towns and cities are now actively encouraging local activity – visit locally, spend locally, eat out locally – and our buying group and members business models are there to service this need.

Will wholesalers become more reliant on AI and robotics?

Technology can assist in responding to the sector’s challenges. By adopting AI they can reduce labour costs, enhance efficiency, and optimise inventory and logistics costs. Automated customer service tools can help with predictive demand forecasting, improving overall business productivity.

Will wholesalers adopt more sustainable practices such as eco-friendly packaging, reducing transport emissions, and implementing recycling programmes?

Yes – either willingly or through measures imposed by legislation. Natural cost reduction through better practices and investment in more efficient vehicles will always be on the Christmas wish list – what is needed is sufficient profitable income to sustain the investment decision in the first place. Little or no economic growth, and low consumer confidence does not provide the best starting point for any business case to do these things.

Will consumers stay in more and will there consequently be more products aimed at in-home consumption?

Consumer behaviours are driven by two things – their own personal circumstances and those that are imposed upon them by government actions. If further demands from central government reduce the available cash to spend, then consumers will automatically amend their household budgets. If consumers do go out, they will be more demanding of the standards of service that they receive. This will then encourage brands to replace out of home sales with in home opportunities through product innovation.

Will healthy eating and wellness be even bigger trends in 2026?

Yes – but not at any cost. Managing household budgets will be key for 2026, and eating healthily within consumers means.

It is very clear that 2026 will be a challenging year – what start to the year recently has not been – opportunities will exist for those businesses that are willing to innovate, streamline what they do, get the basics right, and actively look for new opportunities. Wholesalers need to do two things now – be efficient and be strategic.