Consolidation ahead

Colin Smith, Chief Executive, Scottish Wholesale Association, says there will be acquisitions in the wholesale channel.

What do you think will be the biggest emerging trends in wholesaling in 2026?

I expect that we’ll continue to see consolidation and acquisition in the wholesale channel. We saw several wholesale operators acquired in 2024 and 2025, both in Scotland and across the UK. The out-of-home hospitality and leisure markets remain under stress, and convenience channel sales are showing contraction for the first time in a long time. These impacts feed back up the supply chain to the wholesalers – who themselves are trying to find growth but in a declining marketplace. The solution: to merge or acquire a competitor to expand or enter new markets.

What will be the key categories to watch out for?

I’d expect that all food and drink categories are under “watch out” as the increase in the number of adults turning to weight loss jabs, such as Weygovy and Mounjaro, is increasing. With estimates that up to one in 20 UK adults are taking such medication, the consequence for wholesale is that consumers are not only purchasing and eating less food but, due to the cost of the jabs, consumers potentially have less disposable income to spend on eating and socialising out.

Related to the weight-loss medication, categories that are performing well, and I believe will continue to do so, are functional foods and nutritionally complete foods. Over the past year, we’ve seen some real innovation within the convenience channel as they lean into this space, with dedicated areas and bays highlighting this growing market opportunity.

How can wholesalers best prepare for 2026?

In a time of uncertainty and faced with no real prospect of any costs reducing, or significant enough monetary policy easing, it is very much about focusing on your USPs and KSPs. The market is going to get tougher before it gets better and going back to basics and focusing on your inner strength is perhaps the best way of preparing for the future head on.

Do you think online shopping will increase over the next year?

This remains a real area of opportunity for the wholesale channel, especially in foodservice and hospitality. Many SWA foodservice members are using online digital ordering platforms, such as Orderlion or Choco, that allow customers to place orders how and when they like. With AI taking handwritten order notes, voicemails or spreadsheets, transposing them and pushing them into a wholesaler’s order system and ERP, it gives the customer flexibility of when and how they order. It significantly reduces the cost for the wholesaler in not requiring staff as order takers. It has also been shown to increase customers’ basket spend.

Do consumers still love local shopping?

Evidence would continue to suggest they do. As the multiples continue to encroach into the “local market” with their small store formats, it’s forcing more independents to invest, adapt and offer more unique customer experiences. This is all great for the shopper, encouraging them to shop local as they find new and innovative meal solutions, freshly made goods, local produce, and unique finds all on their doorstep.

Will wholesalers become more reliant on AI and robotics?

Wholesale will still rely most of all on its people, certainly for the foreseeable future. Wholesale is very much a people business. However, AI is already taking over some of the more administrative burdens of how orders are being placed and captured. AI is playing a bigger role in back-office functions, from accounts to marketing, and fleet planning to writing strategic plans – and it will only get bigger. As for robotics, while it’s far from advanced in our channel, I see this as a growth opportunity.

Will wholesalers adopt more sustainable practices such as eco-friendly packaging, reducing transport emissions, and implementing recycling programmes?

It’s not a question of “will” – they must. Both UK and Scottish government regulation, as well as increasing customer demand, are pushing wholesalers (and their customers) to become more sustainably adept in what and how they use things. SWA has supported members with case studies, from deploying EV fleets to reducing food waste, and how to adapt and prepare for the impacts of climate change.

Will consumers stay in more and will there consequently be more products aimed at in-home consumption?

Contraction within the out-of-home and leisure marketplace suggests that consumers are staying in, albeit convenience retail sales are also showing a decline and so it may be that consumers are doing the same but spending less all round.