- Operation finds 25% of independent shops selling tobacco visited in Liverpool selling illegal tobacco[1]
- Poll reveals 76% of those surveyed in Liverpool believe there is not enough enforcement[2]
- 97% of people surveyed in Liverpool concerned illegal tobacco can lead to crime and violence increase[2]
Illegal tobacco was found to be on sale in one in four independent Liverpool shops selling tobacco visited during a recent test-purchasing operation[1].
The operation, conducted on 30 January 2025 and 3 February 2026, visited 72 independent shops selling tobacco in Liverpool, 18 of which (25%) were found to be selling illegal tobacco[1].
Of those 18 shops, 14 had also sold illegal tobacco during previous test-purchase operations, suggesting more needs to be done to tackle repeat offending.
New polling commissioned by the It Costs More Than You Think Campaign has also found 72% of people surveyed in Liverpool believe politicians aren’t doing enough to tackle illegal tobacco trading[2].
Meanwhile, 76% believe there is not enough enforcement to stop illegal tobacco sales[2].
HMRC estimates the issue of illegal tobacco is costing the Treasury over £2 billion in lost tax revenue nationally each tax year[3].
Illicit tobacco products purchased during the recent Liverpool test purchasing operation included counterfeit Amber Leaf starting from just £4.00. For comparison, the recommended retail price of a legal 30g pouch of Amber Leaf was £27.95 as of 19 January 2026[SB2] [JB3] .
The illicit white cigarette brand Topgun, sourced from Belarus and the UAE, was found to be on sale for £6.00[1].
These products were positioned behind vape displays in gantries among legal stock, as well as behind the counter or in a back room[1].
The polling also found that 97% of people surveyed in Liverpool are concerned illegal tobacco can lead to increased crime and violence in local communities[2].
Almost two-thirds (62%) of Liverpool residents surveyed are very concerned that a consequence of illegal tobacco is the funding of organised crime, while nearly three in four (73%) are very concerned about the impact on victims of organised crime, including those affected by human trafficking and exploitation[2].
HMRC and UK Border Force have linked illicit tobacco to organised crime, smuggling, fraud, violence and money laundering, while the National Crime Agency’s Operation Machinize targeted independent shops, barbershops and other cash-intensive premises suspected of selling illicit tobacco and illegal vapes, as well as money laundering, human trafficking, drugs and weapons offences[4].
From 1 October 2026, smokers will face a double duty increase, with the usual annual RPI plus 2% tobacco uplift applied alongside a one-off additional rise on cigarettes and hand-rolling tobacco, introduced with the new vaping products duty[5].
Government figures show the combined increases will add £1.21 to a pack of 20 cigarettes and £2.54 to a 30g pouch of roll-you-own tobacco, creating a sharp price rise that risks pushing more consumers towards the black market[6].
Among Liverpool smokers surveyed, nearly three in five (59%) believe the October 2026 tax increase will make them more likely to seek out cheaper alternative tobacco for the first time and 50% believe buying illegal tobacco makes it more socially acceptable to buy other illegal goods[2].
[1] Test purchasing was conducted by a trained undercover operative commissioned by JTI UK. A total of 72 independent retailers that sell tobacco products were visited in Liverpool on 30th January and 3rd February 2026.
[2] This data is based on an online survey that was conducted for JTI by an independent British Polling Council accredited research agency between January 7 and January 29 2026, involving a sample of 15,228 UK adults aged 19 and over. To ensure the findings are representative of the UK general population, the data was weighted by age, gender and region.
The data for Liverpool was collected from 211 adults living in the ITL3 classified Liverpool area, of which 99 were smokers.
[3] £2bn figure based on HMRC’s tax gap estimates for Excise Duty and VAT losses 2022 – 2023 https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20250501185902/https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/measuring-tax-gaps(select the table for 2024 and go to table 3.7. See lines 6 and 7 combined for 2022-2023).
[4] HMRC and Border Forcer paper on impact of illicit tobacco: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/stubbing-out-the-problem-a-new-strategy-to-tackle-illicit-tobacco/stubbing-out-the-problem-a-new-strategy-to-tackle-illicit-tobacco National Crime Agency, Operation Machinize: hundreds of barbershops targeted in NCA-coordinated crackdown: https://www.nationalcrimeagency.gov.uk/news/operation-machinize-hundreds-of-barbershops-targeted-in-nca-coordinated-crackdown
[5] Changes to tobacco duty rates:
[6] Tobacco increases per pack with duty rate changes:
Liverpool Riverside Key Survey Findings – based on Liverpool data[2]
· (Q19_4) 97% of people surveyed in Liverpool are concerned illegal tobacco can lead to increased crime and violence in local communities
· (Q21_3) Three in five (62%) of Liverpool residents surveyed are very concerned that a consequence of illegal tobacco is the funding of organised crime (vs 71% nationally)
· (Q22_5) Nearly three in four (73%) of Liverpool residents surveyed are very concerned about the impact on victims of organised crime, including those affected by human trafficking and exploitation, due to illegal tobacco trade (vs 75% nationally)
· (Q24_4) Almost one third (31%) of Liverpool residents surveyed are very likely to share campaign content about the issue of illegal tobacco (vs 22% nationally)
· (Q25_3) Five in seven (71%) of Liverpool residents surveyed think their actions wouldn’t make an impact on illegal tobacco (vs 72% nationally)
· (Q25_4) Seven in ten (72%) of Liverpool residents surveyed believe politicians aren’t doing enough to tackle illegal tobacco trading (vs 80% nationally)
· (Q25_6) Three quarters (76%) of Liverpool residents surveyed believe there is not enough enforcement to stop illegal tobacco sales (vs 82% nationally)
· (Q29) Over a third (37%) of Liverpool residents surveyed believe the illegal tobacco trade is a serious national issue tied to organised crime and public safety threats (vs 42% nationally)
· (Q30_2) Half (50%) of Liverpool residents surveyed believe the current economic conditions make it more justifiable to purchase tobacco from cheaper, potentially illegal sources (on a par with the national average)
· (Q30_6) Half (51%) of Liverpool residents surveyed believe people selling illegal tobacco in their area are likely working in the UK illegitimately (on a par with the national average)
· (Q31_2) Nearly three in five (59%) of Liverpool smokers surveyed believe the October 2026 tax increase will make them more likely to seek out cheaper alternative tobacco for the first time (vs 57% nationally)
· (Q31_4) Half (50%) of Liverpool smokers surveyed believe buying illegal tobacco makes it more socially acceptable to buy other illegal goods (vs 38% nationally)
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