Weight loss drugs could completely transform the UK food and drink market, writes David Gilroy.
I knew I was walking into a trap. I intended to keep it sensible. An espresso coffee with a water on the side. A few minutes later and whoa! I’ve got a latte grande with marshmallows, a blueberry muffin and a millionaire’s shortbread. I’ve fallen prey to the upsell and the temptation to have a “treat” – just this once. Only it’s not just this once, it’s becoming a regular thing. Everywhere you travel, food and drink are being thrust in your path. The smell of coffee and patisserie is compelling. And it broadens out to every possible selling point in every setting. The ubiquitous impulse purchase. Commercially it is an important part of our industry, we all buy into it and we need it. With volume virtually flat, the emphasis is on ways to increase transaction values.
The UK grocery market is one of the largest retail sectors in Europe, with annual consumer spending approaching £195–200 billion. However, the last five years have been unusual because market value has grown much faster than market volume, driven primarily by inflation rather than increased food consumption. Volume has been much weaker because consumers have bought fewer discretionary items, traded down to own-label products, increased shopping at Aldi and Lidl, reduced waste and purchased smaller pack sizes. Mintel notes that supermarket value sales increased while volume sales declined after adjusting for inflation. Around 47% of shoppers actively cut grocery spending, illustrating the pressure on household budgets. If all this wasn’t enough, there is a fundamental change coming in society which could have a huge impact on our industry. For the first time weight-loss pills containing semaglutide, the active ingredient that transformed obesity treatment through injectable drugs such as Ozempic, will be available in pill form through UK pharmacies and online providers. Stefano Hatfield writing in The i-Paper says that drugs such as Wegovy, Mounjaro and Ozempic collectively known as GLP-1are already in massive demand in the United States and if this translates to Britain, we could be about to witness one of the fastest changes in public health behaviour in modern times. While Superdrug has highlighted a 300% surge in demand for its weight-loss services. Hatfield asks what happens to the food industry if significant numbers of people eat substantially less?
Originally developed to treat type 2 diabetes, these medicines have demonstrated significant effectiveness in reducing body weight by suppressing appetite, slowing gastric emptying and increasing satiety. As their availability expands through both private healthcare and the NHS, their influence is expected to extend well beyond healthcare into food manufacturing, grocery retailing and consumer packaged goods. Although GLP-1 drugs currently affect only a minority of UK consumers, early evidence suggests that users purchase fewer calories, buy smaller shopping baskets and increasingly favour healthier, higher-protein foods. Weight-loss medicines may become a structural driver of lower food consumption volumes over the next decade.
The first measurable effects have already emerged in the United States, where GLP-1 adoption is more advanced than in Europe. Retail transaction data show declines in purchases of crisps, biscuits, confectionery, sugary drinks and bakery products among households using GLP-1 medicines. Conversely, purchases of yoghurt, fresh produce, meat snacks and nutrition bars increased modestly, suggesting consumers prioritise protein and nutrient density over energy-dense foods. These findings indicate that GLP-1 medicines are unlikely to reduce grocery expenditure evenly across categories. Instead, they will accelerate the ongoing shift away from processed, high-calorie foods towards fresh, functional and protein-rich products.
The UK is entering a similar phase of adoption. Greater access to private prescriptions, expanded NHS eligibility and the development of oral GLP-1 medicines are expected to increase patient numbers substantially. Recent UK consumer research suggests that around three million adults have already used GLP-1 medicines, with adoption expected to grow significantly over the coming years as pill formulations become more widely available. Users report purchasing fewer snacks and sugary drinks while increasing purchases of fresh foods, protein-rich products and dietary supplements. Retailers are beginning to respond. Marks & Spencer, Ocado and other food retailers have introduced products positioned around higher protein, balanced nutrition and portion control, reflecting changing consumer demand.
McKinsey research suggests that the most important consequence for the grocery industry is likely to be declining consumption volumes rather than declining market value. GLP-1 medicines introduce an additional structural factor into the grocery market that could further reduce the quantity of food purchased. Unlike economic downturns, which temporarily suppress spending, appetite suppression directly reduces calorie consumption. Consumers are not merely switching brands—they are consuming fewer products. This distinction is particularly significant for manufacturers whose business models depend on continual volume growth. Categories most at risk are forecasted to be confectionery, crisps, snacks, sugary soft drinks, and possibly alcohol. Not all food sectors will lose. Growth opportunities include fresh produce, Greek yoghurt, cottage cheese, lean meats, fish, eggs, functional beverages, protein snacks, vitamins and supplements. Average basket sizes may shrink but be partially offset through premiumisation, prepared meals and healthier convenience products. Operators with strong fresh food propositions may benefit disproportionately. Loyalty data and artificial intelligence will become increasingly valuable for identifying emerging dietary patterns among different customer segments. McKinsey estimates that, at current adoption levels, GLP-1 medicines have had less than a 0.4% effect on the overall food market, but this impact could increase materially if usage becomes widespread. And within the market, the mix of sales will certainly change.
Professor Sir Chris Whitty (The i-Paper) writes that those taking GLP-1 medication should focus on activities that build strength as their weight decreases to protect muscle mass. Similarly, those wholesalers faced with the greatest exposure to the trading impacts of GLP-1 and social trends should start broadening their offerings to reflect consumer expectations. The industry needs to think now about how to reduce its dependency on those categories most at risk of decline.
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