The rise of no & low alcohol has been one of the most significant trends in the beverage industry as more consumers opt to moderate their drinking. Major brands have activated ‘zero’ versions of established favourites to appeal to Gen Z, who are famously drinking less to service their more competitive and experimental approach to life. It’s a strategy that’s been paying off with the no & low category making a significant contribution to growth for companies including Diageo, Heineken, and Molson Coors. But, despite predominately bullish sales forecasts, one industry commentator is thinking the unthinkable – raising the prospect of sudden sales stagnation, writes Palesa Mthiyane, Content Marketing and Communications Executive, at MMR Research Worldwide.
The assertion has been made as sales of plant-based meat alternatives plummet across several key markets including the U.S. and the U.K. The decline has seen several players pull products from shelves including Taste & Glory, Garden Gourmet, and Heck. Andrew Wardlaw, Chief Ideas Officer at global independent consumer and sensory research, MMR Research, admits that his view makes him an outlier at this time but insists that growth cannot be assured.
In his recent think piece titled Saving ‘no & low’ alcohol from stagnation, Andrew said, “If we look at meat alternatives, we see another sector that’s been built on the art of mimicry, and despite massive gains in product performance, we know that many ‘mainstreamers’ who initially bought out of curiosity are not coming back because of the sensory gap. If there is one thing that we’ve learned over the last few years, it is that the vast bulk of consumers don’t want to compromise – not even to save the planet.”
“My concern is that a significant number of no & low buyers will have simply been on a curiosity trip and are only likely to dip back in when they’re the nominated driver – which isn’t going to sustain growth for much longer.”
Data from IWSR has previously shown that most no & low drinkers also drink alcohol and switch to zero products to manage overall alcohol consumption. “Most surveys indicate that around half the population want to moderate their consumption of alcohol. But with zero propositions finding their way into only 5% of households, it’s clear that moderation does not equal abstention for the overwhelming majority” adds Wardlaw. Wardlaw emphasises the following key points to underscore his concerns:
Lack of Continuous Innovation: Wardlaw highlights the potential stagnation within the no & low category, suggesting that the industry may be failing to evolve and meet changing consumer preferences. To ensure success, he urges industry players to continually innovate and provide exciting options that align with evolving tastes.
Taste and Quality Concerns: Wardlaw warns that compromising on flavor and overall enjoyment could undermine the long-term viability of the no & low category. Addressing the potential disappointment of consumers regarding taste and quality is crucial to prevent alienating them and losing their trust.
Consumer Expectations and Education: The success of the category relies on effectively managing consumer expectations and educating them about the unique attributes of no & low beverages. By ensuring consumers understand the benefits and limitations of these products, industry stakeholders can foster a stronger relationship with their target audience.
Research and Development: Wardlaw emphasises the importance of ongoing research and development efforts within the no & low category. By investing in taste improvement and exploring novel ingredients and techniques, industry players can create more impactful products that truly land the brand promise.
Long-Term Viability: The ultimate goal is to ensure the long-term viability of the no & low category. Wardlaw’s warning serves as a call to action for industry stakeholders to reassess their strategies and make necessary adjustments to prevent the potential failure of the category. By taking proactive steps, the industry can secure its position as a reliable and sustainable alternative for health-conscious consumers.
“To create a more inclusive category for the future, I believe it’s time for manufacturers to innovate at the lower end of ABV – ideally between 1.2% ABV to 2.8% ABV. Right now, this area is practically invisible, and yet our sensory evaluations consistently show that a little alcohol can successfully eradicate the sensory gap. A very low alcohol wine is vastly superior to 0%, for example.”
One beer brand already on the case is Small Beer, which has invested in a bespoke brewing kit to exclusively produce lower alcohol beer – up to 2.8% ABV – the world’s first dedicated small beer brewery!
In addition to ‘lower’ opportunities, finding ways to shift consumers’ attention away from the category’s reductive narrative is also recommended. “There are some truly exciting developments on the fringes, with low ABV players like Rally Beer and Impossibrew adding functional benefits such as electrolytes and nootropics – hitting that Gen Z sweet spot of competitive consumption,” says Wardlaw.
Whilst the sudden stagnation of no & low is not inevitable, Andrew believes that it is prudent for beverage companies to expand their thinking. “The category must innovate in new directions to capture a greater proportion of these self-proclaimed moderators and tap into increasing desire for functional beverages,” he says.
Andrew’s recommendations for continuous innovation, taste improvement, ingredient exploration, and consumer education serve as a roadmap to shape the future of this rapidly growing category. If the total category can achieve this, it has the potential to safeguard buyer numbers and frequency for a long time to come.
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